Similar Models, Broken Odds: Where Luce's Axiom Fails in Chatbot Arena
Chatbot Arena ranks language models with the Bradley-Terry model, which gives each model one score and so assumes Luce's choice axiom. Choice theory predicts where this fails: near-copies are told apart more decisively than their scores imply.
By Soovadeep Bakshi, Apurba Bose, Aishwarya Bose, Sandip NandiarXiv - cs.CL (NLP)
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Originally published by arXiv - cs.CL (NLP) on Oct 15, 2026.
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