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AI as Normal Technology

22 stories

Stories

  • Steering AI Beyond Automation

    By Gabriel Unger and Arvind Narayanan. Unger is an economist at Stanford’s Digital Economy Lab.

    AI Snake Oil24 min read

  • A big-tent or small-tent AI safety movement?

    In recent weeks, two narratives about AI safety have emerged: either AI existential risk is real and imminent, or AI leaders’ and whistleblowers’ claims to that effect are insincere — a “psyop” or hype or a twisted form of regulatory capture.

    AI Snake Oil13 min read

  • AI agents can't yet do open-ended AI research

    The goal of leading AI labs is recursive self-improvement (RSI): the automation of AI research using AI agents. RSI also underpins forecasts of explosive AI progress. How can we assess if we are close to this milestone?

    AI Snake Oil6 min read

  • What will be left for us to work on?

    I had the honor of giving a keynote at the International Conference on Machine Learning in Seoul last week titled “What will be left for us to work on?” I addressed the widespread anxiety about how we should adapt as AI capabilities increase.

    AI Snake Oil33 min read

  • Do AI Risks Require Extraordinary Government Intervention?

    In a recent essay, Derek Thompson engages with AI as Normal Technology (AINT). He agrees with our thesis about AI’s slow labor market impacts, relying on the fact that GDP growth has so far been average, unemployment is below 5%, and even jobs that seemed vulnerable to automation show rising…

    AI Snake Oil14 min read

  • New Paper: Towards a science of AI agent reliability

    Suppose you hear about a new AI agent for improving productivity — by making purchases, or writing code, or sending emails, or handling a customer on your behalf. Should you trust it? Can the agent do the job reliably enough? After all, there are many horror stories of agents going wrong.

    AI Snake Oil10 min read

  • Fact checking Moravec's paradox

    I have launched a YouTube channel in which I analyze AI developments from a normal technology perspective. This essay is based on my most recent video in which I did a deep dive into Moravec’s paradox, the endlessly repeated aphorism that tasks that are hard for humans are easy for AI and vice…

    AI Snake Oil12 min read

  • A guide to understanding AI as normal technology

    When we published AI as Normal Technology, the impact caught us off guard. It quickly became the most influential thing either of us had ever done.1 We took this as a strong signal to spend more of our time thinking and writing about the medium-term future of AI and its impacts, offering grounded…

    AI Snake Oil27 min read

  • Could AI slow science?

    AI leaders have predicted that it will enable dramatic scientific progress: curing cancer, doubling the human lifespan, colonizing space, and achieving a century of progress in the next decade.

    AI Snake Oil28 min read

  • AGI is not a milestone

    There is no capability threshold that will lead to sudden impacts

    AI Snake Oil21 min read

  • AI as Normal Technology

    This post is over 15,000 words long—it is a new paper on our vision for the future of AI. We are pleased to announce that an expanded version of these ideas will become our next book together.

    AI Snake Oil80 min read

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